Spearfish Situation Risk Report – Northwestern Nigeria

Overview

The resurgence of insecurity in the state can be traced to the first quarter of 2020 when villages were freely raided by bandits in over 20 attacks. More so, available records indicate that bandits regularly and persistently terrorize the eastern zone of the state which comprises of 8 Local Government Areas of Gada, Isa, Sabon Birni, Wurno, Rabah, Goronyo, Illela, and Gwadabawa respectively.

Sabon Birni is said to be the most terrorized Local Government Area (LGA) in the State. On Wednesday, May 27, 2020, bandits attacked Sabon Birni LGA, and over 70 people, including women and children, were reportedly killed.

Measures by State Government Against Banditry

In December 2018, several measures were offered by several state governors in the North West and security forces to armed groups in an effort to end the conflict which included;

• Granting of amnesty to the bandits which meant no prosecution of bandits that laid down their arms.
• Cash for arms was offered to repentant bandits.
• A monthly government allowance to repentant bandits
• Vocational training

In return for the government offer above, bandits were required to release kidnapped victims they were holding and completely end all forms of hostility against the state. The agreements were fashioned according to those offered to militants in the Niger Delta region, which ended most of the agitations there. Several bandit groups came forward and accepted the truce but within 6 months begun breaking terms of the agreement and by late 2019 banditry activities resumed fully.

New Peace Agreement

At the beginning of August 2020, there were rumors of North-Western state governors resuming negotiations with the same armed groups terrorizing the region. By September 2020, Kebbi state governments claimed to have once again reached an agreement that the bandits in this deal the bandit were immune to future prosecution once they surrendered to security forces.

Following the purported negotiations, the State Government was said to agree to construct a Dam at Kamarawa so that the Bandits can engage in all-season farming and warned the bandits against the usage of weapons or another incriminating item (s). The agreement was also signed by both Sokoto and Zamfara State Governments

Renewed Violence

According to media reports, the bandit groups now operate around the forested areas in  Tangaza, Gudu and Binji areas of Sokoto State. This is evidenced by the recent attacks in the aforementioned areas and the attack on Gidan Madi Divisional Police Headquarters by a group of about 100 armed men dressed in army uniforms on 17 September 2020. A Divisional Police Officer (DPO) and Deputy Chief Officer (DCO) were killed in the attack. In the early hours of 18 September, the Ruwa-Wuri community in the same LGA was attacked and civilians killed.

Between the 1 and 17 of September 2020, there are over 10 reported cases of banditry/kidnap incidents recorded around Gudu, Tangaza, Binji, and Silame LGAs

Finally, the state equally witnessed floods in Kebbe, Rabah, and Silame Local Government Areas which destroyed farmlands and washed away bridges, leaving many communities isolated and inaccessible by road. This will further isolate communities and expose them to attacks.

Assessment

The situation is concerning as these bandits have disregarded the peace agreement in the past and indications show they are doing the same now. Security in the West and North of Sokoto remains unstable at least into 2021.

The Government Security Forces inability to subdue the armed groups and the recent attack by these groups on the police shows a rising threat level similar to that in the North Eastern part of the country.

The flooding around these troubled areas will further hamper government response to the conflict thereby isolating distant communities.

Recommendations

• If the security situation in the region mentioned above continues to deteriorate into the coming months, there may be a need to reassess the security threat level from Medium to High in the affected LGAs.
• Where possible, Government and Security locations should be avoided over the next few weeks.
• Continue to maintain situational awareness.
• Avoid other hard to reach areas or locations with overgrown crops that provide cover for bandits.
• Always Maintain a low profile