Resilience Over Resolution: Ukraine’s War Enters a New Phase

Dan Hooton
May 16, 2026

19th May 2026

Strengthening our presence on the ground

I visited Ukraine last week, about six months after my last visit at the end of last year. I left the country in November with a sense of foreboding. Zelensky’s closest supporters were embroiled in a corruption scandal, desertion in the Ukrainian Army was reported to be at alarming levels, and political support, particularly from the US, hung in the balance. In short, it felt like the war could come to a rapid end in Russia’s favour, perhaps not through outright military victory, but through a change in leadership and a bad peace deal that could effectively tilt Ukraine from West to East. 

This time, I was heading out to kick off our support for a new donor-funded programme, welcome news in these times of shrinking foreign aid. The programme supports a wide range of projects across the country, including agribusiness, technology, and green energy. It also meant adding two new security advisors to the team, bringing fresh ideas and skills to the group. 

As usual, I flew into Poland and then began the long overland journey by train to Kyiv, taking the overnight intercity into the capital and arriving early on Monday morning for a full week in the city. The journey itself hadn’t changed. My fellow travellers were largely Ukrainian women and children returning home to loved ones, alongside a smattering of international travellers like me. Immigration checks were straightforward, and before long, I was on my way through the night to Kyiv. 

The sheer length of the journey remains significant, however, and if air travel does eventually resume, it will completely transform both people’s appetite and ability to visit Ukraine. 

A city that keeps moving

On arrival on Monday morning, the city seemed as busy as ever. I was booked into a small hotel just off Maidan Square, close to our new office. We had previously been based in Dnipro, which remains our operational hub, but we have now moved our management team to the capital to bring us closer to our international clients. This also coincided with the start of the new contract, which is also based in Kyiv. 

Throughout the week, I noticed subtle differences in the people around me. Although the fundamentals of the military and political situation were not dramatically different from my last visit, and the air raids continued unabated, there was a greater sense of optimism, which, on the face of it, felt unexpected. 

The Ukrainians appeared to have the upper hand in the current tactical stalemate along the front lines, largely due to their more effective use of UAVs to counter Russian infiltration tactics. However, it would only take a breakthrough in Russian tactics or technology for that advantage to reverse. 

From Dependence to Determination

Politically, the Ukrainian peace process has largely been overshadowed by the war involving Iran, with political capital now being spent negotiating with Tehran rather than applying pressure on Putin. There was a sense that this brutal four-year war had been eclipsed by a louder, newer crisis. In other words, the situation remains finely balanced and could deteriorate at any time. 

Nonetheless, despite all of this, there was definitely a growing sense that Ukrainians believe they will endure this terrible period and emerge from it as a stronger, independent nation. I would attribute this shift in mood to a collective acceptance that Ukraine cannot rely indefinitely on American largesse or lukewarm European support, but instead must plan to think, fight, and fund its own way through the conflict. 

Earlier this year, President Zelenskyy issued a decree implementing a rigorous new National Defence Plan designed to sustain high-intensity combat for at least another two years. An Anti-Drone Initiative and broader military-industrial investment strategy have further reinforced this approach. The recent deployment of Ukrainian advisors to Gulf countries also demonstrated the value Ukraine has created on the battlefield, expertise it is now prepared to export in order to strengthen its own future. 

As I write this on the long train journey home, I feel far more optimistic than I did during my last visit. Going into the summer, Ukraine feels more resilient, more determined, and more psychologically prepared for the long haul. There is no expectation that some seismic event will suddenly resolve the situation, but rather a grim determination to make the country impossible to defeat by becoming stronger, more resilient, and more self-reliant. 

Forgotten strikes, Ongoing Suffering

A short footnote. One thing I found particularly frustrating was the international news cycle’s almost complete dropping of its coverage of the sustained, large-scale air attacks against the civilian population. On Wednesday and into Thursday, a combined “double tap” day-and-night attack saw a total of 675 drones and 56 missiles launched against Ukraine by the Russian Federation. It was the largest attack in months, yet received scant mention in much of the international media. 

In one tragic incident, a missile struck an apartment complex on the outskirts of Kyiv, resulting in 29 deaths and many injuries. Checking my usual international news sources afterwards, I found only limited coverage compared to far more mundane and irrelevant domestic stories taking centre stage. 

That is the nature of the modern news cycle, but we should not forget the suffering of the people of Ukraine, now four years into a brutal and critical struggle that has implications for all of us. 

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