Overview of the situation:
Although more likely a strategic move, the pretext to these events was the November elections last year; won by the former ruling party National League for Democracy (NLD). The result was deeply contested by armed forces who deemed the election fraudulent.
The days following the takeover have seen political opposition and ethnic leaders arrested as well as civil society activists, heavy-handed measures against protesters, communication disruptions including internet and social media shutdown. Meanwhile, a yearlong state of emergency was announced, with 'free and fair' elections to be held after. Several ministers and lawmakers were released, but former civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other key political figures remain detained. Thus, tensions continue to rise, with the prospect for further civil unrest and protests.
Amid rising public disapproval and international condemnation, the military is likely to continue taking measures to signal normalisation. The country has already suffered years of military rule (1962 to 2011) and faces significant internal issues such as poverty and violence and significant divides along ethnic and religious lines.
Impact on international development organisations operating in Myanmar
Although historically the military wields much power in the country even amidst ostensibly democratic reforms, the takeover represents a turnaround in the country's path to democracy. It is hard to evaluate for now as there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the situation.
Nonetheless, it will disrupt foreign investment and create an even greater uncertain environment for not only businesses but NGOs and international development organisations due to the highly likely future international sanctions imposed upon Myanmar. International development organisations are likely to be obstructed by delays or have visa applications refused and permissions or hindered by travel restrictions in and out of the country. In the immediate term, in-country operations can also expect to face logistical challenges around protests, communication shutdowns, and the increased military presence.
The difficulty of action for international organisations will further be hindered by the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. The pandemic has represented an opportunity that favoured the military coup and will continue to assist further bans on foreign visas, restrictions of movement, communication, and meetings. This, as we have already seen, is already the reality in other authoritarian leadership regimes..
Spearfish Events Coming Up
Duty of Care Seminar - Wednesday 10th February 2pm (GMT)
Following our successful crisis management seminar in December, this session will dwell on the challenges of maintaining Duty of Care to your staff. We are focused particularly on those deployed remotely, or those operating as project partners under your Duty Of Care platform.
We are pleased to present Adrian Powell of Proelium Law, the UK’s foremost legal authority on high-risk jurisdictions and specialist risk services. Adrian will present a short session to engage the audience, and we will then engage in a question and answer session.
For more information about the how Spearfish can help please contact us.